The impact of EU enlargement on migration flows

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessarily those of the Home Office (nor do they reflect Government policy). and the Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate, for their help with the data. We thank John Salt for discussion and suggestions. 5 Executive Summary This document is a report commissioned by the Home Office in order to assess the magnitude of potential migration flows to the UK after the enlargement of the European Union (EU). The countries which are expected to join the EU on 1 May 2004 are Cyprus, The aim of the report is to provide extensive information that will be helpful in evaluating the migration potential from these countries to the UK. This is done by (i) describing the socioeconomic situation of the accession countries nowadays and since the early 1990s and comparing it to that of the UK and Germany, (ii) critically reviewing the existing literature that attempts to predict the effects of the current EU enlargement on migration flows, (iii) analysing the so-called Southern enlargement (the accessions of Greece, Portugal and Spain) and comparing it to the current one, and (iv) presenting a quantitative analysis of the effect of the current enlargement on migration to the UK. Chapter 2 of the report briefly reviews the events that have led to the current situation in the enlargement process. Negotiations with the AC-10 were completed at the Copenhagen European Council in December 2002, when it was agreed that these countries could join the EU on 1 May 2004. These negotiations had considered how the AC-10 would adopt the EU's laws and rules, called the acquis communautaire. For the purpose of the negotiations the acquis was divided into chapters, one of which deals with Freedom of Movement of Persons. This chapter embodies the conditions under which individuals from the accession countries will be allowed into the current member states. In this respect, it has been agreed that after enlargement there will be no restrictions on movements of persons such as those for purposes of study or residence. However, a transition period regarding the free movement of workers, which will not apply to Malta and Cyprus, has been agreed with the rest of the accession countries. Its most important features are 1 : 1. Current member states are free to apply national measures restricting CEEC nationals from working in their territories for the …